Recently Baseball Prospectus published its Top 101 Prospects list with no introduction text, leading at least one baseball writer to ask: Why publish rankings if there’s no context? My answer was that the context was more or less strictly for fantasy baseball, though I’m not sure that was the intent—if they were just ranking guys to rank ‘em, as we did in Before Dynasty times, that’s cool too.
But I think the best way to introduce my rankings is to say that these are very explicitly a snapshot in time, for dynasty players, of how I judge the trade market for the following dudes. Specifically, I have these guys ranked in descending order of how I’d feel about 1:1 trades. I’d rather trade the number two guy for the number one guy and the number three guy for the number two, and so on. For what it’s worth, I think this is the best way to think about rankings in general because they’re tethered to a context in which they’re practically tradable (unlike in real life, where prospects are traded, of course, but rarely for each other, and rarer still traded for each other one for one). If we are just ranking who’s better than who in a purely ephemeral sense, we’re sort of unmoored in a way in which I’m not really comfortable opining upon, because the context of real baseball is far more complex than that of dynasty, and I don’t know shit about the complexities of hiring and trading real baseball players. Just their digital avatars.
Without further ado, here is the list, which goes up to 11 because of Spinal Tap, and beyond 11 because of… Spinal Tap. Anyhow, off we go:
Jarred Kelenic, 21, OF, Seattle Mariners
To paraphrase the employees of Axe Capital, I am not unbiased here. I took Kelenic seventh overall in my main FYPD two years ago and have thus been tethered to his ascent like a cat dangling from an airplane. But by god, the view from up here is spectacular. Power, average and speed, from the outfield, combined with his proximity to the majors, gives him my number one spot fairly comfortably, as far as these things go. I do not think we have seen anything so far that suggests he will be anything other than a star from day one at a premium position (I am generally of the opinion that even with the pronounced positional scarcity around the infield, having a top outfielder is probably more important than a top, say, shortstop, given that you have to start three outfielders).
Why I’d rather have him than Wander Franco: There’s almost no projection left with Kelenic; the cards are on the table in a way they’re not with Franco. Franco’s cards may end up better yet, but I think the smart money suggests otherwise as of today.
Wander Franco, 19, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
I almost ranked Franco, the consensus No. 1 or 2 prospect, behind Spencer Torkelson, until I read Eric Cross’s breakdown of Kelenic vs. Franco at Fantrax, at which point I slowed my roll just a tad. The dream of Franco is so big—80 grade hit tool from both sides of the plate!—that it’s sort of difficult to imagine it playing out to perfection in real life, especially for the peripatetic Rays, because it’s generally unheard of in its scope. We’d have a lot more clarity on Wander if 2020 wasn’t a giant ol’ butt, but it was, and I think my urge to downgrade him further is likely due to prospect fatigue as much as anything (I’m gonna do a prospect fatigue post soon, but my position on tired prospects is BUY, BUY, BUY), though I do think Franco is closer to Torkelson than he is to Kelenic right now. I have Kelenic in one of my main leagues and Franco in the other, and I would not trade Kelenic for Franco, but would happily do the opposite without much thought.
Why I’d rather have him than Tork: This is extremely close, but it comes down to first base being a position you can get rather easily and switch-hitting 80 grade shortstops being a position you can get much less easily. I think this is pretty much a coinflip, and I think these guys round out tier one pretty definitively.
Spencer Torkelson, 21, 1B, Detroit Tigers
It’s hard to stand out as a first baseman they way Tork has, but he has. I mean look at Andrew Vaughn, the player against whom he will be judged a la Bryce Harper and Mike Trout: The best first base prospect in more than minute, Tork blew past him as soon as he was eligible. There is absolutely no doubt that the ASU product will destroy Major League pitching, probably from the get-go, and while speed is not his game, I’m generally apathetic about steals in fantasy baseball in the face of sweet, sweet dingers. If you really wanted Tork, I could see trading either of the top two guys on this list for him and working around whatever slight loss it is; you will not be disappointed.
Why I’d rather have him than Julio Rodríguez: Finally, an easy one! Considerably less projection is involved for Tork.
Julio Rodríguez, 20, OF, Seattle Mariners
It’s a law of dynasty baseball rankings that J-Rod and Kelenic must be ranked within four spots of each other or you will be arrested, and I don’t want to tempt the Dynasty Police. Along with C.J. Abrams, Rodríguez is the most likely next player outside of the top 3 to be baseball’s No. 1 prospect, to the point that some rankings have him higher than Kelenic, all the way up at No. 2 behind Wander. I think that’s a little aggressive because of how much his ranking is tied to Kelenic’s; there’s just so much evidence for Kelenic and so relatively little for J-Rod, due to 2020’s wipeout, that the unknowns outweigh the knowns for me. I am fairly sure dude is going to be a monster, though. Seattle is rolling in it.
Why I’d rather have him than Mackenzie Gore: Even in pitching-premium leagues, a/the top outfielder is usually the best player in fantasy in a given year, so the ceiling here is the play, because it’s the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel.
MacKenzie Gore, 21, LHP, San Diego Padres
Another prospect fatigue case, there are dynasty players everywhere wondering why Gore wasn’t involved in the Padres’s playoff run last year and whether he’s better than, among others, Sixto Sánchez, whose 2020 season showed about as much as you could ask for a pitching prospect. I’d still rather have Gore. He’s a giant lefty who’s gonna pitch in San Diego. That’s pretty much all I want or need to know.
Why I’d rather have him than CJ Abrams: Proximity, and my general aversion to tying my fate to stolen bases.
CJ Abrams, 20, SS, San Diego Padres
Probably the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 prospect in baseball in two years even over J-Rod, Abrams isn’t quite the fever dream that Franco is, but he’s sure close. He’s got 80-grade wheels, but he can hit, and not just for average, but for a little power. In a game where volume is key, I can imagine him leading off for the Pads and just filling up the stat sheet for a perennial contender; it’s a great vision. It’s just two to three years away from being realized—and in the outfielder rather than shortstop at that, but it hardly matters.
Why I’d rather have him than Sixto Sánchez: He’s not a pitcher, leastwise a smaller one.
Sixto Sánchez, 22, RHP, Miami Marlins
As I wrote above, Sixto’s debut was dreamy. No less an authority than Pedro Martínez called Sixto better than Pedro Martínez, and while that’s putting the cart a full Hall of Fame career before the horse, it’s extremely eyes emoji. I traded Sixto this offseason, though, because, as far as these things go, it felt like selling high. His prospect stock can’t get any better; it shot up about 40 spaces due to his 2020 performance alone. If he’s healthy for a long stretch he could be the best—and definitely coolest—pitcher in baseball, but that’s the issue, isn’t it?
Why I’d rather have him than Andrew Vaughn: His trade value is probably higher right now, if only by a little bit, because of his win-now potential. And Vaughn plays first base.
Andrew Vaughn, 22, 1B, Chicago White Sox
Despite playing first base, Vaughn is about as safe as it gets. There are players below him on this list who may very well be better dynasty assets, but there are few likely to be even remotely as stable as Vaughn, who will hit the cover off the damn ball whenever the big league club finally asks. The crime of not being Spencer Torkelson is not one we’re prepared to levy against him. That two first basemen are generally in the top 15 of rankings everywhere is a sign that these two guys are m a s h e r s and we are in for a treat not unlike that of the Trout/Harper era.
Why I’d rather have him than Marco Luciano: Promixity to the majors and a near-total lack of projection.
Marco Luciano, 19, SS, San Francisco Giants
Here’s another guy it would surprise few to see as the No. 1 prospect in baseball in a few years. He absolutely murdered rookie ball as a 17-year-old in 2019, which is a categorically crazy thing to write, and could set fire to everyone ahead of him on this list in short order if he’s got the goods. In general, the international track of prospects tends to put better players on lists like these for longer (as do high school picks), so they are often rated below players they might come out way ahead of, but there’s still so much projection here I feel safe stashing Luciano at 9. “Fun” fact: Born September 10th, 2001! Big day.
Why I’d rather have him than Nate Pearson: The No. 1 prospect in baseball upside, plus, not having to pitch against the AL East, plus, I know anything at all about him, really.
Nate Pearson, 24, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
I’m going to be honest with you and say I don’t know much about Pearson except that he’s very good and if I was trying to trade for him I’d have to trade a lot. This seems like the right spot, as I’m fully capable of reading lists by people who are on top of the matter, and I’d be happy to trade for him at this price.
Why I’d rather have him than Ke’Bryan Hayes: He doesn’t play for the Pirates.
Ke’Bryan Hayes, 24, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
He’s got my name! I like that. He’s very good. He was a monster last year and he’s just getting started. He’s going to be very cool until he achieves the destiny of every Pirates star and plays for the Yankees, at which point it won’t be as fun any more.
Why I’d rather have him than Adley: Not a catcher. If it wasn’t clear from this ranking, I am not a huge believer in having a great catcher as a key to your dynasty championship.
Adley, 2, Cat, Baltimore
It wouldn’t let me number it as 11.5 without messing up the formatting, but you see what I did here. This list is over.